Global oil inventories are set to continue increasing through 2026, maintaining downward pressure on crude prices, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration on 12 November.
The agency now expects Brent crude to average $55/b in 2026, with prices dropping to $54/b in the first quarter as the market moves further into surplus.
The 2026 outlook is $3/b higher than last month’s forecast, largely due to updated assumptions on China’s stockbuilds and the impact of sanctions on Russia.
Lower crude prices are projected to filter through to retail fuels.
The EIA forecasts US gasoline to average below $3/gal in 2026, around 10% lower than 2024, while diesel is set to fall to $3.50/gal, about 7% down on this year.
